Surfaces, Balls and Back-ups – Where the Ashes Will Be Decided

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|